A mechanistic model approach to characterize suitable regions for Salmo salar aquaculture in the Yellow Sea under global warming

Abstract

Global warming has a profound effect on aquaculture. Salmon aquaculture, as an emerging industry in China, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. For this reason, spatial planning with mechanistic understanding is essential for mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Through the use of dynamic energy budget models for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) with fine-scale environmental data under 0 m, 20 m, 40 m, and 60 m depth, this study established a framework for identifying optimal regions for salmon aquaculture in the Yellow Sea under current and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s. These results suggest that most regions in the Yellow Sea under 40 m and 60 m depth are suitable for salmon farming at both current and future scenarios, the central region of the Yellow Sea under 20 m (38°N, 123°E) is the optimal site for salmon aquaculture in China. Overall, these findings provide valuable support for aquaculture management and can help stakeholders create an effective blueprint for adaptation strategies.