Spatio-temporal modelling of COVID-19 incident cases using Richards’ curve: An application to the Italian regions

Abstract

We introduce an extended generalised logistic growth model for discrete outcomes, in which spatial and temporal dependence are dealt with the specification of a network structure within an Auto-Regressive approach. A major challenge concerns the specification of the network structure, crucial to consistently estimate the canonical parameters of the generalised logistic curve, e.g. peak time and height. We compared a network based on geographic proximity and one built on historical data of transport exchanges between regions. Parameters are estimated under the Bayesian framework, using Stan probabilistic programming language. The proposed approach is motivated by the analysis of both the first and the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy, i.e. from February 2020 to July 2020 and from July 2020 to December 2020, respectively. We analyse data at the regional level and, interestingly enough, prove that substantial spatial and temporal dependence occurred in both waves, although strong restrictive measures were implemented during the first wave. Accurate predictions are obtained, improving those of the model where independence across regions is assumed.