Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy

Abstract

Natural gas has been used globally as a transitional fuel for supporting a green-energy-supply strategy, which has been questioned for the intermittence and lack of reliability of renewables. This paper proposes a System Dynamics model for assessing alternative security of supply policy along the natural gas value chain. The model incorporates demand, transport, production and reserves of natural gas variables according to a systemic perspective. It also includes a module for evaluating the effect of natural gas price on the demand and supply levels, respectively. Alternative supply policies are evaluated under different scenarios. The chosen case-study focuses on the Colombian natural gas industry with the purpose of assessing how the impact of public policies affect supply and demand. Particularly, policies consider the allocation of resources along the natural gas supply chain, seeking to promote the development of infrastructure oriented to mitigate the risk of provision shortages.