A multi-scale regional landslide susceptibility assessment approach: the SUFRA_SICILIA (SUscettibilità da FRAna in Sicilia) project

Abstract

The SUFRA project is based on a three level susceptibility mapping. According to the availability of more detailed data, the three scale for susceptibility mapping are increased respect to the ones suggested by the TIER group to 1:100,000, 1:50,000 and 1:25,000/1:10,000. The mapping levels exploit climatic, soil use (CORINE2009) and seismic informative layers, differentiating in the details of the core data (geology and topography), in the quality and resolution of the landslide inventory and in the modelling approach (Tab. 1). SUFRA_100 is based on a heuristic approach which is applied by processing a geologic layer (produced by ARTA integrating pre-CARG 1:100,000 geologic maps); the DEM exploited are IGMI 250m and the mapping units are 1km side square cells. Models are validated with respect to the PAI LIPs (Landslide Identification Points) which are reclassified adopting a simplified scheme. Output cuts of SUFRA100 will be referred to administrative boundaries (provinces). SUFRA50 is based on statistical analysis of new CARG geologic maps and 20m (ITA2000) - 2m (ATA2007) DEM. The mapping units are 500m and 50m cells, hydrographic and hydro-morphometric units. The landslide inventory is the IFFI2012_LIPs (first level) which is the result of the conversion in IFFI format of the PAI archive, which will be supported by remote landslide mapping (exploiting the ATA2007 aerial photos), according to the IFFI first level approach. Validation of the models will be performed exploiting both random spatial partition and temporal partition methods. Output cuts of SUFRA50 will be based on physiographic (basin) and administrative (municipalities) boundaries. SUFRA10/25 is based on statistical analysis of new CARG geologic maps (remotely and field adapted) and 2m (ATA2007) DEM. The mapping units are the slope units (SLUs) which are derived by further partitioning the hydro-morphometric units so to obtain closed morphodynamic units. The landslide inventories is the IFFI2012 which is the results of a field supported (on focus) landslide remote systematic mapping, according to the IFFI full level approach. Examples of SUFRA_100, SUFRA_50 and SUFRA_10 are presented for some representative key sector of Sicily. First results attest for the feasibility and goodness of the proposed protocol. The SUFRA program aims at enabling the regional governmental administration to cope with landslide prevision, which is the required operational concept in land management and planning. PAI has been a great advance with respect to the “pre-SARNO” conditions, but it is very exposed to fail: it is a blind approach for new activations; it is critically dependent on the quality of the landslide inventories; it cannot project the susceptibility outside the landslide areas