The effect of pandemic crises on fertility

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic effects of pandemic crises on fertility rates for a large, unbalanced sample of 182 developed and developing countries during the period 1996-2019. We find that major pandemics are associated with significant and persistent declines in fertility rates of about 2%, on average. These effects are significantly larger for pandemics characterized by a very large number of confirmed cases relative to the population (up to 61/2%) and by deep recessions (up to 5%). In addition, the effects are larger in advanced economies (up to 5%) and for younger women, on average.