Uncertainty in urban stormwater quality modelling: The effect of acceptability threshold in the GLUE methodology

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis in integrated urban drainage modelling is of growing importance in the field of water quality. However, only few studies deal with uncertainty quantification in urban drainage modelling; furthermore, the few existing studies mainly focus on quantitative sewer flow modelling rather than uncertainty in water quality aspects. In this context, the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology was applied for the evaluation of the uncertainty of an integrated urban drainage model and some of its subjective hypotheses have been explored. More specifically, the influence of the subjective choice of the acceptability threshold has been detected in order to gain insights regarding its effect on the model results. The model has been applied to the Savena case study (Bologna, Italy) where water quality and quantity data were available. The model results show a strong influence of the acceptability threshold selection and confirm the importance of modeller’s experience in the application of GLUE uncertainty analysis.