Novel Energy Modelling and Forecasting Tools for Smart Energy Networks

Abstract

A novel Energy Modelling and Forecasting Tool (EMFT) has been adopted for use in the VIM SEN (Virtual Microgrids for Smart Energy Networks) project and this paper gives an insight of the techniques used to provide vital support to the energy market, in particular to energy aggregators. A brief description of one of the test sites where data has been collected for validation of the EMFT will be outlined and some examples shown. The information and predictions will then be used by a decision support system to dynamically adjust energy delivery and consumption, by giving advice to users and operators on actions they can take to obtain a better match between energy supply and demand that increases the fraction of energy generated by environmentally friendly sources. The Energy Modelling part of the tool provides input data to the forecasting section which in turn uses a range of mathematical engines can analyse the data inputs and generate appropriate forecasting data for the time period required. This can range from intra-day to day-ahead in most normal operations but it can extend to week-ahead, month-ahead or even year-ahead. This is an ongoing project of 36 months duration with a consortium of 8 members from the EU and we are half way through the work being assigned.