Segregation and the onset of COVID-19 in American cities

Abstract

We show that ethnic segregation in American cities has contributed to the early onset and to the speed of propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that one standard deviation increase in the exposure dimension of segregation, which we measure by mean of the Gini Exposure segregation index, leads to an increase of 8.7 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants across American urban counties. Exploiting heterogeneity in the geography and timing of stay-at-home orders, we also find evidence that segregation mitigated the effect of lock-down measures.