The long-term cognitive and schooling effects of childhood vaccinations in China

Abstract

By exploiting rich retrospective data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study on childhood immunization, socioeconomics, and health status, we assess the long-term effects of childhood vaccination on cognitive and educational outcomes in China. Applying an instrumental variable approach that resembles an unobserved natural experiment to different sets of control variables and subsamples, we estimate the average and local treatment effects of childhood vaccination. Our results confirm that immunization before the age of 15 has long-term positive and economically meaningful effects on non-health outcomes such as education and cognitive skills. These effects are strong, with vaccinated individuals enjoying about one additional year of schooling and performing better on several cognitive tests later in life. Finally, a causal mediation analysis shows that, although education mediates the effect of childhood immunization on later-life cognitive abilities, other factors (e.g., better child health) are more responsible for these long-term effects.