A stated preference survey to forecast microtransit choice in suburban areas with low public transport ridership

Abstract

Public transport services with fixed schedules and fixed routes are often unreliable and economically unsustainable in suburban areas having a low transport demand that is spatially and temporally dispersed. Therefore, suburban areas become car-oriented and have transportation gaps, increasing the risk of social exclusion for the most vulnerable groups. Microtransit services aim to fill these gaps, offering greater flexibility in routes and schedules for non-commuting trips and operating more efficiently, with shorter walking distances to stops and waiting times. The paper aims to investigate the microtransit choice and the factors that influence it using a Stated Preference (SP) survey. Some suburban neighbourhoods with under utilized public transport services in Palermo, Italy, have been chosen as study areas. Conducting face-to-face interviews, Revealed Preference (RP) data was collected to assess residents’ mobility habits. SP experiments were proposed to respondents to calibrate a mode choice model. A hybrid microtransit has been proposed, operating as a conventional fixed-route and fixed-schedule public transport service in peak hours and as an on-demand service in off-peak hours. A scenario analysis was performed to understand which type of customers would be easier to attract, and how in-vehicle times, waiting and walking times affect the microtransit choice. The study found that the choice probability for microtransit is higher for young people than for older people, increasing with the increase in the level of education and the introduction of travel demand management policies that discourage the use of private cars, such as parking pricing or the introduction of restricted traffic areas.