A freight transport demand model to evaluate policy actions for short sea shipping in Sicily

Abstract

This research aims at developing a modelling tool to predict the impact of different policies on the modal split of the freight transport demand in Sicily (in particular, road versus short sea shipping). To gain this objective, a random utility model, precisely a nested logit one, has been formulated and estimated trough a stated preference (SP) survey which has involved about 40 road-based freight transport Sicilian firms. The resulting demand model has been applied to forecast the modal split scenarios deriving from several projects regarding the Sicilian freight mobility system (some projects are public plans and other ones are proposed by the authors).