Territorial determinants and NUTS-3 regional performance: a spatial analysis for Italy across the crisis

Abstract

This paper analyzes the differential impact of several territorial determinants of the economic performance of Italian provinces (NUTS-3 level), as measured by per capita GDP, export and employment growth from 1999 to 2014. It covers both the pre-crisis and the crisis period and stresses the role of geographical proximity in shaping local performance over a wide set of explanatory variables. In order to do so, we employ, firstly, a spatial Durbin model which enables us to discriminate between direct and indirect effects and to highlight the possible contagion or crowding-out spatial effects for each territorial dimension affecting growth. Then, we extend the analysis by allowing for the possibility of two regimes (pre-crisis and post-crisis). The performance of the provinces before and during the crisis relates to specific territorial components and geographic proximity appears to influence differently the results and their interpretation.