Analysis of a Database to Predict the Result of Allergy Testing in Vivo in Patients with Chronic Nasal Symptoms

Abstract

Background: This article uses the logistic regression model for diagnostic decision making in patients with chronic nasal symptoms. We studied the ability of the logistic regression model, obtained by the evaluation of a database, to detect patients with positive allergy skin-prick test (SPT) and patients with negative SPT. The model developed was validated using the data set obtained from another medical institution. Methods: The analysis was performed using a database obtained from a questionnaire administered to the patients with nasal symptoms containing personal data, clinical data, and results of allergy testing (SPT). All variables found to be significantly different between patients with positive and negative SPT (p < 0.05) were selected for the logistic regression models and were analyzed with backward stepwise logistic regression, evaluated with area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve. A second set of patients from another institution was used to prove the model. Results: The accuracy of the model in identifying, over the second set, both patients whose SPT will be positive and negative was high. The model detected 96% of patients with nasal symptoms and positive SPT and classified 94% of those with negative SPT. Conclusion: This study is preliminary to the creation of a software that could help the primary care doctors in a diagnostic decision making process (need of allergy testing) in patients complaining of chronic nasal symptoms.