Environmental assessment of 2030 electricity generation scenarios in Sicily: An integrated approach

Abstract

This paper deals with the environmental assessment of two electricity scenarios in Sicily, for 2030, characterized by a high exploitation of renewable energy sources in order to quantify the potential contribution of the local strategies in the achievement of the European climate policies and the potential improvement in the future electricity mix, compared to the current one (2014). In order to match these goals, authors integrate the Life Cycle Assessment with a scenario analysis. The future electricity mix scenarios, characterized by a share of renewables (57% for 2030-BS scenario and 51% for 2030-DS scenario) show a reduction of the greenhouse gases emissions per kWh of electricity generated, compared to the current one in which renewables account for 24%. Greenhouse gases emissions decrease by 39.9% in 2030-BS and by 32.9% in 2030-DS. However, the analysis highlights that the state of development of technologies does not allow improvements in a whole set of impacts categories. Particularly, freshwater ecotoxicity increases by around 30% and resources depletion by more than 100%. Results of this study can be used by local authorities as knowledge base in the definition and "ex-ante" evaluation of site-specific low-carbon energy strategies in Sicily.