The uncertainty of the energy demand in existing Mediterranean urban blocks

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to describe a stochastic model that has been developed to obtain load profiles for household electricity. For the study, several profiles have been generated in order to simulate the electrical demand of a residential building block or neighbourhood and evaluate the uncertainty of its energy use. The paper is divided in three different parts: development of the model, validation and determination of the uncertainty demand. In the first parts the basis of the model and how it works is explained. The second one represents the validation of the model, the input data and its results. The last step is focused on a statistical analysis of the electricity demand of a block of dwellings to evaluate minimum number of dwellings needed to estimate the average demand representative of the Mediterranean dwelling with different levels of accuracy.