Reliability Analysis of a Stand-Alone PV System for the Supply of a Remote Electric Load

Abstract

The work presents a reliability analysis of a stand-alone photovoltaic system for the supply of electric loads located in remote areas not easily reachable by the low voltage distribution network. The analysis is performed by characterizing the electric load behavior by means of a Montecarlo approach for taking into account the stochastic variability of the electrical energy demand. A Montecarlo approach is used also for evaluating the electricity production of the stand alone photovoltaic system as a function of the hourly solar irradiation of the installation site. The variability both of the load and of the energy production are correlated and the probability that the load can remain unsupplied for a certain time can thus be evaluated. Finally the reliability of the stand-alone system is compared with the reliability of an eventual connection to the grid as a function of the length of the connection line.