Spatio-temporal modelling of fires in Sicily

Abstract

Sicily encountered a growing challenge of wildfires in 2023, necessitating a thorough investigation into their spatio-temporal dynamics. Our study addresses this concern by applying a Poisson separable spatio-temporal point process model. We prove that the spatial occurrence of fires is influenced by human activities, altitude, and slope, while the temporal one is mainly due to environmental variables, including temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, and total precipitation.